P

Propensity score matching

Ecuador has faced one of the highest deforestation rates in South America, threatening key ecosystem services. In response, the government launched the Socio Bosque Program (PSB) in 2008 to incentivize conservation of privately-owned native forests. This study is the first to assess PSB's additionality using GIS analysis and surveys of landowners in Pichincha province. Results suggest that less than 1% of enrolled forestland would have been deforested without the program. Survey data reveal that landowners more inclined to deforest preferred contracts allowing sustainable timber harvest, while conservation-minded owners prioritized financial incentives. Findings highlight the potential for conservation programs to increase effectiveness by integrating sustainable forest management options.

This study evaluates Ecuador’s Socio Bosque Program (PSB), a payments-for-ecosystem-services initiative, using satellite imagery, field inventories, and landowner surveys. We find that PSB reduced deforestation by 9% in enrolled Amazon Basin areas between 2008–2014 and significantly curbed forest degradation. Enrolled forests contained 1–2 more tree species per hectare, including species more likely to be commercially valuable and threatened. Results suggest that the program’s greatest ecological benefits may come from preventing forest degradation, not just deforestation.

This project investigates the impact of Forest Protected Area (FPA) designations on deforestation in the South American Atlantic Forest region, which spans Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Leveraging remote-sensed forest cover data from 2000 to 2020 and geo-referenced socio-economic variables, the analysis applies a pseudo-randomized design to evaluate how FPA status influences forest loss. Results indicate that FPA designation reduced the odds of deforestation by approximately 14%, with protected areas exhibiting significantly lower deforestation rates (~5%) compared to non-protected forests (~19%). This effect size surpasses previous estimates from other Latin American regions, underscoring the critical role of conservation policy in this biodiversity hotspot. The project provides a reproducible framework for assessing FPA effectiveness and sets the stage for future research on the socio-economic impacts of forest conservation.

This project supports a spatial analysis of deforestation trends and drivers in the tri-national Paraná Atlantic Forest region, as presented in Mohebalian et al. (2022). Using geospatial data from Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, the study quantifies forest loss between 2000 and 2020 and evaluates the influence of factors such as road proximity, urban access, economic growth, and population density. The project uses statistical modeling and spatial data tools in R to estimate the effectiveness of Forest Protected Areas (FPAs) in mitigating deforestation. Results show heterogeneous policy impacts across countries, providing valuable insights for cross-border conservation planning and forest governance.