Westmoreland county, PA (and Allegheny)
Seth's analysis: https://t.me/RealSKeshel/1055
Our numbers nearly match exactly:
Estimates
As we have seen in other issues, we have found T/DR and T/RR to be stable numbers across elections.
T/DR in 2020 is 0.70 which is 0.16 higher than the previous high set in 2004. T/DR for 2008, 2012 and 2016 is extremely stable at 0.53. There is no rational explanation for it to jump to 0.70 in 2020 unless the election was rigged. We will use 0.53 in our estimate calculation.
T/RR in 2020 is 1.09, which is in line with the slightly downward trend since 2008. (If anything, Republicans might be 1,000 or 2,000 votes short).
Estimated Democrat votes: 54,810 (= 103,415 * 0.53)
Excess votes: 17,382 (= 72,192 - 54,810)
Seth estimates Democrat excess votes to be between 18,000 and 20,000 (or more), which agrees with our numbers.
Comments
From the thread.