Mesa county, CO: Different estimate methodologies
Link: https://t.me/RealSKeshel/983
We will look at different methods to estimate the excess Democrat votes in MESA county, CO.
- T/DR = Democrat Turnout / Democrat Registrations
- T/RR = Republican Turnout / Republican Registrations
T/DR in 2020 is excessively high: 1.75, which is 0.27 higher than the previous high set in 2012. (The 1.48 value set in 2012 was already very high due to the smaller number of registered Democrats during that election.)
The Republican, T/RR in 2020 is the same as in 2012 at 1.32.
The Democrat Vote Increase (DVI) in 2020 (9,807) is more than double the DVI record set in 2008. The Republican Vote Increase (RVI) in 2020 (7,115) is less than the RVI record set in 2004.
Official Democrat Votes (DV) in 2020: 31,536
Estimate 1 - Conservative
Use a T/DR value that is the same as the previous high (1.48), set in 2012.
Estimate Democrat Votes = 18,035 * 1.48 = 26,692 (i.e. DR in 2020 * 1.48)
Excess votes: 4,844
Estimate 2 - Equals
Use a T/DR that is the same as the T/RR (i.e. 1.32) (Note: in 2016 the T/RR and T/DR were the same. Why were they so different in 2020?)
Estimate Democrat Votes = 18,035 * 1.32 = 23,806
Excess votes: 7,730
Estimate 3 - Balanced
In the previous 2 estimates we only looked at the Democrat excess votes. It is conceivable that if the Democrat vote was increased, the republican vote may have been decreased.
To see how this would look like we will transfer the excess T/DR (1.75 - 1.48 = 0.27) back to the Republican T/RR
Estimate Republican Votes = 43,065 * (1.32 + 0.27 = 1.59) = 68,473
Shortfall votes: 11,579
This means there could be as many as a 16,423 (= 11,579 + 4,844) gap between Republican and Democrat votes compared to official numbers.
Estimate 4 - Averages
To average things out we could use the value from estimate 2 and 3.
Gap in votes ( 7,730 + 16,423) /2 = 12,076
Taking the middle ground, we estimate a gap between Republican and Democrat votes to be 12,076. I.e. Democrats have an excess of 6,038 votes and Republicans have a 6,038 shortfall.
Summary
Only a full forensic audit will allow us to ascertain which estimation method is the most accurate.