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Based on a classical model of infection epidemics, we developed a mathematical model particularly adapted to the requirements and specificities of the CoV-outbreak (SECIR model). An in-depth description can be found in our [article](https://gitlab.com/simm/covid19/secir/raw/master/paper.pdf).
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## Model structure
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![Model scheme](https://gitlab.com/simm/covid19/secir/raw/master/img/static/SECIR-Schematic.png)*The scheme of the SECIR model. The model distinguishes healthy individuals without immune memory of COVID-19 ($S$), infected individuals without symptoms but not yet infectious ($`E`$), infected individuals without symptoms who are infectious (pre-symptomatic ($`C_I`$) and asymptomatic ($`C_R`$) carriers), infected symptomatic individuals who are not yet detected ($`I`$), and detected ($`I_{H,R}`$) and undetected ($`I_X`$) symptomatic patients. Further, compartments for hospitalization in non-critical ($`H_{U,R,S}`$) and critical/intensive care units ($`U_{D,R}`$) were introduced to monitor the load on the healthcare
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system. Detected patients recover from different states of the disease ($`R_Z`$) or
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die ($`D`$). Undetected individuals who went through the infection and recovered are
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also taken into account ($`R_X`$). |
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![Model scheme](https://gitlab.com/simm/covid19/secir/raw/master/img/static/SECIR-Schematic.png)*The scheme of the SECIR model. The model distinguishes healthy individuals without immune memory of COVID-19 ($S$), infected individuals without symptoms but not yet infectious ($E$), infected individuals without symptoms who are infectious (pre-symptomatic ($C_I$) and asymptomatic ($C_R$) carriers), infected symptomatic individuals who are not yet detected ($I$), and detected ($I_{H,R}$) and undetected ($I_X$) symptomatic patients. Further, compartments for hospitalization in non-critical ($H_{U,R,S}$) and critical/intensive care units ($U_{D,R}$) were introduced to monitor the load on the healthcare
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system. Detected patients recover from different states of the disease ($R_Z$) or
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die ($D$). Undetected individuals who went through the infection and recovered are
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also taken into account ($R_X$). |
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