Add merge train health statistics

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Release notes

Problem to solve

Merge train failures are costly because the tail of the train gets recreated from scratch. In a sufficiently active project with sufficiently flaky and slow pipelines, this can cause merge trains to grow indefinitely, leading to ever-increasing times-to-merge.

Today, there is no visibility into this situation. A user hoping to adopt merge trains will have to do the math themselves.

Proposal

Come up with a statistical model of merge trains to help users understand where their project stands with regards to merge-train viability, with an interactive visualization demonstrating how improving things like pipeline speed and flakiness will affect expected time-to-merge.

This would probably help gitlab-org/gitlab adopt merge trains.

A mathematical framework to model merge trains would be ideal, to help us design future improvements, such as #415838

Intended users

Feature Usage Metrics

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