P

placebo-tests

Python research code that measures false-positive rates and minimum detectable lift of geo-experiment estimators by running placebo experiments on real county sales data with no intervention. Compares difference-in-differences, synthetic control, ridge-augmented SC, conformal tests and structural time series.

Python research code comparing interrupted time series (segmented regression) and Bayesian structural time series counterfactuals. Includes a Gibbs-sampled BSTS, Monte Carlo experiments on trends, seasonality, effect shape and triggered launches, and a placebo study of the 1983 UK seat belt law.

Python research code for synthetic control, donor-pool geometry, and placebo inference. Includes DiD, ridge-augmented SC, synthetic DiD, Monte Carlo experiments, and the California Proposition 99 case study.