St. Tammany Parish, LA
Seth's Analysis: https://t.me/RealSKeshel/1105
T/DR of 0.87 in 2020 is excessive. We have gone through this explanation in other issues T/DR should be stable across elections. Should be closer to 0.60. Conservatively let's keep it at 0.65 as in 2016.
Estimate Democrat votes: 28,054 (= 43,161 * 0.65)
Democrat Excess votes: 9,691
(Seth estimated 7,000 excess votes. We believe he is being too conservative. Not to mention the fact Republicans are short of a few thousand votes as well.)
Edited by Kalev Nikov