Tarrant county, TX: Historical Down Ballot Analysis
See issue #15 for some context.
We looked at the historical down ballot votes for TARRANT county TX.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Highlights
- 2008: Republican candidate has a percentage gap that is similar to the average gap of all the other county elections (~11%)
- 2012: Republican candidate has a percentage gap that is similar to the average gap of all the other county elections (~16%)
- 20016: Republican candidate has a percentage gap that is NOT similar to the average gap of all the other county elections. (7% less than the average...)
- 2020: Republican candidate has a percentage gap that is NOT similar to the average gap of all the other county elections. (6% less than the average...)
Double checked 2004, 2000, and 1996, which all heavily favored Republican candidates.
2016 breaks the trend of Presidential gap being similar to the average gap of all other county elections.
2020 breaks the trend of high gap values (in the teens) for the county elections.
Comments
- Looks like "the algorithm" was only targeting the presidential race in 2016. All the other county elections had an average gap of 15.6% in 2016, which was very similar to the average gap in 2012. (16.3%)
- Did they manage to apply the algorithm to all the county elections in 2020? How do you go from a consistent 15% gap (in the 2 previous elections) to 6% gap (a loss of 9%) in just one election cycle?
References
Edited by Kalev Nikov