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This analysis was developed for the sake of providing a daily updated evaluation of the reproduction number suitable to support political decisions on non-pharmaceutical interventions in the course of the CoV-outbreak and applied to German data.
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# Time-varying reproduction number for Germany
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Data for Germany were fitted to the cumulative number of reported cases in a sliding time window with a size of one week. The transmission rate $`R_1`$ was varied to fit to the data. Parameter sets were randomly sampled within the specified ranges (see figure 2) and, upon refitting, this induced a variability of reported $`R_t`$ values. The box plot shows the 25 and 75 percentiles as well as the min and the max values. Outliers were removed. Both used parameters sets (literature-based and derived from Italy-fit) are compared.
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Data for Germany were fitted to the cumulative number of reported cases in a sliding time window with a size of one week. The transmission rate $`R_1`$ was varied to fit to the data. Parameter sets were randomly sampled within the specified ranges and, upon refitting, this induced a variability of reported $`R_t`$ values. The box plot shows the 25 and 75 percentiles as well as the min and the max values. Outliers were removed. Both used parameters sets (literature-based and derived from Italy-fit) are compared.
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![Germany_iter_104](https://gitlab.com/simm/covid19/secir/raw/master/img/dynamic/Germany_iter_104.png)
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# Evolution of reproduction number for federal states of Germany
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