KR: Forecast growth for all Product Planning Categories (+ WebSockets)

Forecasting timeline:

• -12 month = April 2020
• -6 month = October 2020
• Current = April 2021
• +6 month = October 2021
• +12 month = April 2022
• +24 month = April 2023

Epics

Growth Features:

• Average Daily Epics Created (Per Month)

Source: https://app.periscopedata.com/app/gitlab/865424/WIP:-Dev-Scaling-Targets:-Growth-Forecasting?widget=11744944&udv=0

	-12 month	-6 month	Current	+6 month†	+12 month†	+24 month†	10x
Average Daily Epics Created	153	561	623	2370	5020	32400	6230
Δ (from current)			100%	380%	806%	5200%	(1000%)
Upper Confidence				3780	7880	50900

† Projected using Facebook Prophet

Service Desk

Growth Features:

• Average Daily Service Desk Issues Created (Per Month)

Source: https://app.periscopedata.com/app/gitlab/865424/WIP:-Dev-Scaling-Targets:-Growth-Forecasting?widget=11742848

	-12 month	-6 month	Current	+6 month†	+12 month†	+24 month†	10x
Average Daily Issues Created	166	447	647	684	711	1330	6470
Δ (from current)			100%	106%	110%	206%	(1000%)
Upper Confidence				1050	1150	1920

† Projected using Facebook Prophet

Requirements Management

Growth Features:

• Average Daily Requirements Created (per Month)

Source: https://app.periscopedata.com/app/gitlab/865424/WIP:-Dev-Scaling-Targets:-Growth-Forecasting?widget=11876891&udv=0

	-12 month	-6 month	Current	+6 month†	+12 month†	+24 month†	10x
Average Daily Issues Created	0	143	201	268	324	424	2010
Δ (from current)			100%	132%	159%	206%	(1000%)
Upper Confidence				276	330	430

† Projected using Facebook Prophet

Notes: Requirements Management is a very new feature so historical data will be unreliable for forecasting. We should instead use qualitative sales/product data to forecast growth.

Action Cable / WebSockets

Growth Features:

• 30d Peak Simultaneous Connections

Source(s):

• WebSocket connections
• Issue Page views (which generate them)

	-12 month	-6 month	Current	+6 month†	+12 month†	+24 month†	10x
30 Day Peak Connections	-	-	38k	52k	148k	-	-
Δ (from current)			100%	137%	390%		(1000%)
Confidence			-	-	-	-	-

† How these forecasts were projected:

1. 7d Max RPS of 9.03 for the Issue show page generates 38000 connections at peak.
2. It's likely that at least one of the Pipelines graph page or the MR view will use a WebSockets in some way within 6 months.
   • Pipelines graph 7d Max is 5.54 (i.e. adding 24,000 connections at peak)
   • MR View 7d Max is 22.66 (i.e. adding 96,000 connections at peak)
3. Within 12 months both of these should be using WebSockets.
4. Within 24 months, all of GitLab should share a single WebSocket connection, so we can derive this from total number of online users (won't be 1 to 1 as users have multiple tabs open).