Commit c295d752 authored by Arndt Leininger's avatar Arndt Leininger

update to draft and added models

parent 358ebd8b
......@@ -76,6 +76,20 @@ summary(ma1_e <- glm(vote ~ eco_soc_post + know + female + age + uni,
summary(ma2_e <- glm(vote ~ eco_soc_post * know + female + age + uni,
family = binomial(link = 'logit'), data = df))
# *Alternative measures of government approval*
# Approval of Renzi
summary(ma4_pm <- glm(vote ~ eco_soc + know + approval_renzi + female + age + uni,
family = binomial(link = 'logit'), data = df))
# Voted for one of governing parties
summary(ma4_vg <- glm(vote ~ eco_soc + know + vote_gov + female + age + uni,
family = binomial(link = 'logit'), data = df))
# PID with governing party
summary(ma4_pg <- glm(vote ~ eco_soc + know + pid_gov + female + age + uni,
family = binomial(link = 'logit'), data = df))
# *Egotropic economic voting*
# I also estimate the same models with an alternative independent variable which
......@@ -206,6 +220,23 @@ stargazer(list(ma1_v, ma2_v, ma1_e, ma2_e), type = 'latex', float = F,
keep.stat = c('n', 'rsq', 'll')
)
# Appendix (alternatives measure of government approval)
stargazer(list(ma4_pm, ma4_vg, ma4_pg), type = 'latex', float = F,
out = 'tables/t_appendix4.tex',
covariate.labels =
c('Sociotropic economy',
'Approval of PM',
'Voted for governing party',
'PID with governing party',
'Political Knowledge',
'Female', 'Age', 'University education', NA),
dep.var.labels = 'Vote choice (Yes)',
digits = 2,
align = T,
column.sep.width = '0pt',
initial.zero = F,
keep.stat = c('n', 'rsq', 'll'))
# Appendix (Egotropic economic voting)
stargazer(list(me1, me2, me3, me4), type = 'text',
order = c(1, 2, 7, 3:6, 8))
......@@ -249,5 +280,6 @@ stargazer(list(mse1, mse2), type = 'latex', float = F,
save(list = c('m1', 'm2', 'm3', 'm4', 'mm1', 'mm2', 'mm3',
'ma1_v', 'ma2_v', 'ma1_e', 'ma2_e',
'ma4_pm', 'ma4_vg', 'ma4_pg',
'me1', 'me2', 'me3', 'me4', 'mse1', 'mse2'),
file = 'models/models.RData')
......@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ dev.off()
# ma1_v
dfig <- data.frame(eco_soc = 1:5, know = 2, female = TRUE,
age = mean(df$age, na.rm = T),
age = median(df$age, na.rm = T),
uni = T)
dfig$prediction <- predict(ma1_v, newdata = dfig, type = 'response')
......@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ dev.off()
# ma1_e
dfig <- data.frame(eco_soc_post = 1:5, know = 2, female = TRUE,
age = mean(df$age, na.rm = T),
age = median(df$age, na.rm = T),
uni = T)
dfig$prediction <- predict(ma1_e, newdata = dfig, type = 'response')
......@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ dev.off()
# me1
dfig <- data.frame(eco_ego = 1:5, know = 2, female = TRUE,
age = mean(df$age, na.rm = T),
age = median(df$age, na.rm = T),
uni = T)
dfig$prediction <- predict(me1, newdata = dfig, type = 'response')
......
......@@ -20,19 +20,20 @@
\caption{Aggregated share of vote intentions for and against the constitutional reform (ignoring undecided voters and non-voters), the actual result of the referendum, and the aggregate reported vote choices (ignoring those who casted a blank ballot or abstained)}\label{f:a:vote}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[H]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=.8\textwidth]{../../figures/f_m4}
\caption{Predicted probabilities for a woman of average age (48) with a university degree to vote ``yes'' in the referendum dependent on whether she thinks the national economy (1) got much worse, (2) got a little worse, (3) remained equal, (4) improved somewhat or (5) improved a lot, based on model 4, Table \ref{t:results}}\label{f:a:m4}
\end{figure}
%\begin{figure}[H]
% \centering
% \includegraphics[width=.8\textwidth]{../../figures/f_m4}
% \caption{Predicted probabilities for a woman of average age (48) with a university degree to vote ``yes'' in the referendum dependent on whether she thinks the national economy (1) got much worse, (2) got a little worse, (3) remained equal, (4) improved somewhat or (5) improved a lot, based on model 4, Table \ref{t:results}}\label{f:a:m4}
%\end{figure}
\begin{table}[H]
\small\centering
\input{../../tables/t_mediation}
\caption{Replication of models 1, 3 and 4 from Table \ref{t:results} in the manuscript, all as OLS regression models (linear probability models in case of models (1), and (3). Model (1) correlates a respondent's vote choice with their evaluation of the national economy, model (2) includes and interaction between a respondent's evaluation of the national economy and their referendum knowledge, model (3) correlates a respondent's approval (or disapproval) of the government and their evaluation of the national economy and model (4) replicates model (1) but adds government approval as independent variable}\label{t:a:mediation}
\end{table}
\begin{table}[H]
\small
\small\centering
\input{../../tables/t_appendix}
\caption{Replication of models 1 and 2 from Table \ref{t:results} in the manuscript. Models (1) and (2) replace vote choice with vote intentions. Models (3) and (4) keep vote choice as dependent variable but replace sociotopric evaluations measured before the referendum with sociotropic evaluations after the referendum}\label{t:a:robustness}
\end{table}
......@@ -50,7 +51,13 @@
\end{figure}
\begin{table}[H]
\small
\small\centering
\input{../../tables/t_appendix4}
\caption{The table replicates model (4) from Table \ref{t:results} in the manuscript, replacing government approval with approval of the prime minister Matteo Renzi (column 1), a dummy variable indicating whether a respondent voted for one of the governing parties (2) or whether a respondent identifies with one of the governing parties (3).}\label{t:a:govaprovalternatives}
\end{table}
\begin{table}[H]
\small\centering
\input{../../tables/t_appendix2}
\caption{Model (1) correlates a respondents vote choice with their evaluation of their own economic situation, model (2) includes and interaction between a respondent's evaluation of their own economic situation and their referendum knowledge, model (3) correlates a respondent's approval (or disapproval) of the government and their evaluation of their own economic situations and model (4) replicates model (1) but adds government approval as independent variable}\label{t:a:egotropic}
\end{table}
......
Markdown is supported
0% or
You are about to add 0 people to the discussion. Proceed with caution.
Finish editing this message first!
Please register or to comment