Based on advance purchase agreements signed with Pfizer
Anticipating the outsize demand for any approved vaccine, the World Health Organization formed the COVAX facility in April to ensure equitable distribution. COVAX brought together governments, scientists, civil society and the private sector -- though Pfizer is not currently part of the facility.
Rachel Silverman, a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said it was unlikely that much of the first vaccine batch would end up in poorer nations.
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Based on advance purchase agreements signed with Pfizer, she calculated that 1.1 billion doses had been snapped up entirely by wealthy nations.
"There's not much left for everyone else," she told AFP.
Some countries that pre-ordered, such as Japan and Britain, are part of COVAX, so some doses are likely to reach less developed nations through their purchase agreements. Conversely, the United States, which has 600 million doses on order, is not a COVAX member, though this may change under a Joe Biden administration.
Ethics aside, epidemiological data underscores the need for equitable vaccine distribution. This month researchers at America's Northeastern University published research examining the link between vaccine reach and Covid-19 mortality.